Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -800 ME +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +32 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -4.7 (+27.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -5.3 (+26.7) | 132.8 (+9.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -8.6 (+23.4) | 132.9 (+9.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -4.6 (+27.4) | 135.9 (+6.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -4.8 (+27.2) | 134.1 (+7.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#172) | 0.1 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#110) | -0.37 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#113) | -0.06 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#103) | 0.480 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 17.2% |
Game Analysis
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