Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -400 ETAM +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +17 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -9.1 (+7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -7.7 (+9.3) | 141.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -8.1 (+8.9) | 142.3 (+10.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -7.6 (+9.4) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -5.4 (+11.6) | 144.8 (+8.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | PFW 77 – 57 ETAM |
| Nov 12, 2023 | PFW 86 – 64 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#159) | -3.5 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#126) | -0.59 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#120) | -1.08 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#162) | 0.462 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.7% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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