Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Memorial Coliseum (IN) · December 20, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -9.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money PFW -400 / ETAM +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total PFW win
Actual PFW +17 153 Won
Massey PFW -9.1 (+7.9)
Massey Totals 134.5 (+18.5)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 95%
Baseline Plus ML PFW -7.7 (+9.3) 141.5 (+11.5) 77%
Baseline ML PFW -8.1 (+8.9) 142.3 (+10.7) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML PFW -7.6 (+9.4) 141.1 (+11.9) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML PFW -5.4 (+11.6) 144.8 (+8.2) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2024 PFW 7757 ETAM
Nov 12, 2023 PFW 8664 ETAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PFW ETAM
Overall 17-15 13-20
Conference 9-11 9-9
Home 9-6 5-5
Away 7-8 7-12
Neutral 1-1 1-3
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 71.6 70.7
Avg Pts Against 72.1 74.2
Massey 0.8 (#159) -3.5 (#242)
Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#126) -0.59 (#232)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.86 (#120) -1.08 (#255)
RPI 0.508 (#162) 0.462 (#243)
Shooting & Four Factors PFW ETAM
FG% 40.0% 41.2%
3PT% 30.1% 27.2%
REB / G 37.4 33.5
OREB / G 10.0 10.3
AST / TO 0.83 1.04
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 48.0%
TOV% 21.3% 18.0%
ORB% 26.4% 27.5%
FT Rate 19.4% 14.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 17.6% 19.0%
DRB% 78.2% 73.7%
Opp FT Rate 13.7% 32.5%

Game Analysis

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