Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ETAM +300 PFW -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +20 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -5.9 (-14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -5.9 (-14.1) | 145.0 (-11.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -5.3 (-14.7) | 145.4 (-11.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -5.2 (-14.8) | 145.3 (-11.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -8.2 (-11.8) | 142.1 (-8.1) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2023 | PFW 86 – 64 ETAM |
| Dec 20, 2022 | PFW 85 – 68 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETAM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-26 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 12-8 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-16 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#308) | 3.6 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#297) | 0.68 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#291) | 0.79 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#306) | 0.555 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETAM | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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