I got a baby's brain and an old man's heart "I'm Eighteen" - Alice Cooper
Memorial Coliseum (IN) · November 12, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PFW -5.5 Home covered
O/U 148.5 Over
Money PFW -225 / ETAM +230
Model Predictions
Spread Total PFW win
Actual PFW +22 150 Won
Massey PFW -24.1 (-2.1)
Massey Totals 140.7 (+9.3)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline ML PFW -17.2 (+4.8) 140.0 (+10.0) 87%
Baseline Tuned ML PFW -15.3 (+6.7) 140.4 (+9.6) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 30, 2024 PFW 7757 ETAM
Dec 20, 2022 PFW 8568 ETAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PFW ETAM
Overall 23-13 13-20
Conference 11-9 6-12
Home 11-5 8-7
Away 10-8 4-12
Neutral 2-0 1-1
Last 5 1-0 0-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 78.3 67.3
Avg Pts Against 72.9 76.6
Massey 6.6 (#51) -5.6 (#281)
Bradley-Terry 1.78 (#20) -0.75 (#268)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.50 (#23) -1.05 (#266)
RPI 0.542 (#106)
Shooting & Four Factors PFW ETAM
FG% 44.4% 33.3%
3PT% 50.0% 21.1%
REB / G 30.0 29.7
OREB / G 7.0 8.0
AST / TO 1.10 0.79
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 38.7%
TOV% 13.2% 18.7%
ORB% 19.4% 20.2%
FT Rate 27.0% 9.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.9% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 28.6% 15.8%
DRB% 76.7% 64.4%
Opp FT Rate 31.4% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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