Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -225 ETAM +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -24.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -17.2 (+4.8) | 140.0 (+10.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -15.3 (+6.7) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | PFW 77 – 57 ETAM |
| Dec 20, 2022 | PFW 85 – 68 ETAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 10-8 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#51) | -5.6 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#20) | -0.75 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#23) | -1.05 (#266) |
| RPI | — | 0.542 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 21.1% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 9.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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