Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DRKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +6 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -9.1 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -7.5 (+13.5) | 129.9 (-19.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.8 (+12.8) | 126.3 (-16.3) | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -8.7 (+14.7) | 130.2 (-20.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -7.2 (+13.2) | 129.2 (-19.2) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DRKE | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#126) | 11.3 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#106) | 3.85 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#111) | 5.19 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#72) | 0.590 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DRKE | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 21.9% | 39.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 24.8% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 13.5% |
Game Analysis
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