Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SF -1600 UTA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +5 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -14.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -12.1 (-17.1) | 134.9 (-3.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -14.9 (-19.9) | 135.5 (-4.5) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -11.9 (-16.9) | 137.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SF -12.8 (-17.8) | 136.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#104) | -5.8 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.05 (#39) | -1.49 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#52) | -1.87 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#73) | 0.460 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 40.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 64.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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