Betting Lines
| Spread | DEN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +110 DEN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -0.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -1.5 (+15.5) | 147.8 (+1.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEN -1.3 (+18.3) | 146.4 (+2.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEN -0.5 (+17.5) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -0.0 (+17.0) | 150.7 (-1.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | OMA 83 – 76 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2026 | OMA 84 – 82 DEN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | OMA 78 – 69 DEN |
| Jan 16, 2025 | OMA 80 – 62 DEN |
| Mar 12, 2024 | DEN 66 – 63 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#296) | -2.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#253) | -0.04 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#251) | -0.46 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#199) | 0.451 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 35.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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