Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -2000 STO +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +29 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -17.1 (+11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -16.9 (+12.1) | 136.0 (-7.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -13.8 (+15.2) | 134.1 (-5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -16.0 (+13.0) | 135.0 (-6.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -16.9 (+12.1) | 135.5 (-6.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#83) | -6.4 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#89) | -1.41 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#98) | -2.15 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#102) | 0.477 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 18.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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