Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UVM +110 TOL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -3.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -2.1 (-14.1) | 149.7 (+6.3) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.8 (-14.8) | 151.3 (+4.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -2.4 (-14.4) | 151.8 (+4.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -2.0 (-14.0) | 153.4 (+2.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | UVM 86 – 60 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-6 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#162) | 1.7 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#161) | 0.23 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#177) | 0.24 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#174) | 0.518 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 18.9% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.