Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -292 UVM +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +26 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -8.7 (-34.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -5.2 (-31.2) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.6 (-31.6) | 143.6 (+2.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -6.2 (-32.2) | 144.5 (+1.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.7 (-31.7) | 142.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2022 | TOL 84 – 72 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-1 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-5 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 63.8 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#100) | 0.4 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#87) | 1.02 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#124) | 1.02 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#114) | 0.548 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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