Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +110 LIP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | LIP -5.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -4.3 (-3.7) | 140.0 (+2.0) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -3.8 (-4.2) | 139.3 (+2.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -4.1 (-3.9) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -3.8 (-4.2) | 141.2 (+0.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-13 | 13-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -12.4 (#346) | -2.1 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.49 (#338) | -0.46 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#312) | -0.76 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#317) | 0.467 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.52 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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