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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–14 on winners spread MAE 9.4 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Chicago State @ Iowa State +27.0 121.3 99% 48–79 ✓
Davidson @ Alabama +6.7 150.0 73% 79–78 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +5.2 133.3 68% 58–71 ✓
Morehead State @ IU Indianapolis -14.5 116.2 9% 80–52 ✓
Presbyterian @ Furman +14.4 142.9 91% 61–75 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ High Point -0.2 145.0 49% 52–55 ✗
Fresno State @ Utah +3.7 130.0 63% 50–55 ✓
Winthrop @ Mississippi State +10.1 144.2 82% 63–84 ✓
Elon @ Arkansas +21.1 156.2 97% 55–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Cincinnati +17.4 129.2 94% 67–76 ✓
American University @ George Mason +20.2 143.3 97% 44–67 ✓
Bradley @ Sam Houston -5.2 131.2 32% 87–61 ✓
Howard @ Harvard +3.9 151.7 64% 69–77 ✓
Southern @ Dayton +13.1 136.4 88% 60–69 ✓
UAlbany @ Lehigh +4.3 130.1 65% 68–52 ✗
Wright State @ NC State +14.6 154.9 91% 84–70 ✗
App State @ North Carolina +13.4 139.9 89% 50–70 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Bellarmine +2.4 137.0 59% 71–57 ✗
Manhattan @ The Citadel +8.5 156.2 78% 77–74 ✗
Marshall @ Toledo +8.4 162.8 78% 63–95 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Ball State +15.5 134.6 92% 55–75 ✓
Michigan State @ Oakland -7.4 132.7 25% 90–78 ✓
Delaware @ Iona +7.2 149.6 74% 72–83 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ South Alabama +13.4 138.5 89% 69–84 ✓
Air Force @ Tarleton State +7.7 108.0 76% 45–67 ✓
Grambling @ TCU +21.0 130.3 97% 55–90 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Iowa +27.5 159.9 99% 62–93 ✓
McNeese @ Kansas State +17.5 135.4 94% 59–74 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -5.1 150.8 32% 78–70 ✓
Portland State @ Utah State +25.4 140.1 99% 62–81 ✓
North Carolina Central @ UTEP +11.1 132.1 84% 61–70 ✓
Norfolk State @ New Mexico +7.0 160.8 74% 54–68 ✓
Utah Valley @ Washington -3.4 138.8 38% 68–52 ✓
Pepperdine @ Oregon +15.1 144.0 92% 59–68 ✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Tech +7.5 149.8 75% 62–72 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ California Baptist +12.5 152.1 87% 68–84 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State -2.2 149.0 42% 79–57 ✓
Nicholls @ Oregon State -0.8 144.0 47% 61–83 ✗
Hartford @ Sacred Heart +7.5 151.8 75% 78–71 ✗
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington -5.3 123.8 32% 58–65 ✗
William & Mary @ Valparaiso +16.9 125.8 94% 66–88 ✓
Towson @ Navy +4.8 130.7 67% 69–52 ✗
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Notre Dame +10.2 135.8 82% 73–83 ✓
Alabama State @ Texas +28.6 135.2 100% 48–68 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech +18.2 145.8 95% 46–78 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +8.3 135.9 77% 68–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ Florida +16.0 138.4 93% 62–87 ✓
Delaware State @ Temple +23.8 134.9 98% 48–85 ✓
Army @ South Carolina +13.0 132.3 88% 75–105 ✓
Liberty @ Northern Iowa -0.1 124.7 49% 76–74 ✓
Idaho State @ UC Santa Barbara +19.2 135.9 96% 43–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Richmond +19.2 153.5 96% 50–81 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver -0.7 150.6 48% 74–75 ✗
Western Carolina @ Charlotte +7.7 153.3 76% 82–98 ✓
Green Bay @ Minnesota +22.4 131.8 98% 56–72 ✓
Portland @ UC Davis +12.2 143.9 87% 65–60 ✗
Southern Illinois @ San Francisco +10.1 122.8 82% 52–64 ✓
Wyoming @ Stanford -10.4 143.0 17% 63–66 ✗
Murray State @ Auburn +10.5 145.2 83% 58–71 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Kentucky +15.1 146.2 91% 60–95 ✓
Chicago State @ Drake +21.4 135.8 97% 50–87 ✓
Troy @ Mercer +9.1 141.9 79% 69–65 ✗
Youngstown State @ West Virginia +11.1 131.3 84% 52–82 ✓
Pacific @ California +10.3 127.1 83% 53–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.