I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–2 on winners spread MAE 8.8 25 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Alcorn State @ Baylor +30.4 135.6 100% 57–94 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Purdue +38.6 151.2 100% 59–79 ✓
Delaware State @ Wagner +32.7 131.3 100% 51–93 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Charlotte +3.2 144.6 62% 54–70 ✓
Western Carolina @ Georgia +9.3 149.7 80% 79–85 ✓
Stetson @ Miami +13.4 134.1 89% 72–82 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Valparaiso +5.1 147.2 68% 55–67 ✓
Manhattan @ Charleston Southern -5.8 153.0 30% 99–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Lamar -2.6 146.5 41% 80–77 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota State +11.5 151.0 85% 57–89 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota -0.3 145.5 49% 82–73 ✓
St. Thomas @ Omaha -11.4 154.8 15% 80–73 ✓
Western Michigan @ Notre Dame +18.1 142.8 95% 52–85 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Gonzaga +32.5 149.5 100% 49–95 ✓
Western Illinois @ Denver -5.3 141.9 31% 84–80 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Ohio +18.7 131.5 96% 70–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ East Carolina +15.7 139.0 92% 67–68 ✓
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh -1.7 108.6 44% 55–64 ✗
UTSA @ Illinois State +14.3 156.7 90% 64–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Little Rock -7.6 139.4 24% 87–67 ✓
Samford @ Ole Miss +10.1 134.6 82% 75–73 ✗
Dartmouth @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.2 118.9 61% 57–61 ✓
South Carolina State @ Charleston Southern -4.8 156.1 33% 75–65 ✓
Merrimack @ Maine -9.7 112.6 19% 49–47 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M +25.3 143.4 99% 61–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.