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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–11 on winners spread MAE 9.9 37 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arizona @ Tennessee -0.5 152.2 48% 73–77 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Canisius -4.0 142.7 36% 90–97 ✗
Sam Houston @ North Carolina Central +1.1 140.2 54% 68–51 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Chattanooga +10.5 142.6 83% 65–77 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis +10.3 160.2 82% 75–67 ✗
Charleston @ Old Dominion +1.3 142.6 55% 82–80 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Indiana +21.1 134.1 97% 61–79 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Wichita State +18.6 146.9 95% 66–102 ✓
North Alabama @ UCF +17.5 122.8 94% 64–75 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Georgia +2.6 138.1 59% 86–84 ✗
Clemson @ Virginia +2.7 123.4 60% 67–50 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Marist +14.3 136.4 90% 45–68 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth +8.7 147.2 79% 77–71 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ UAB +37.8 154.6 100% 58–100 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Nebraska +4.4 157.9 66% 74–88 ✓
Texas State @ Houston +18.2 132.5 95% 47–80 ✓
Lipscomb @ LSU +32.7 139.4 100% 60–95 ✓
Boise State @ Washington State +7.2 128.3 74% 58–52 ✗
Alcorn State @ Oklahoma +20.2 134.6 97% 48–72 ✓
Longwood @ Abilene Christian +7.9 145.2 76% 58–74 ✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State +15.2 136.1 92% 76–86 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +11.6 169.3 85% 76–82 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha -15.8 150.6 8% 78–84 ✗
Kansas City @ South Dakota +1.2 129.8 54% 68–57 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Duke +7.4 139.3 75% 65–76 ✓
UC San Diego @ San Diego State +11.4 120.2 85% 57–78 ✓
Missouri @ Illinois +20.2 142.0 97% 63–88 ✓
Utah Tech @ Southern Utah +10.0 158.4 82% 59–87 ✓
Bradley @ UTEP -1.4 126.9 45% 73–66 ✓
BYU @ South Florida -16.9 120.3 6% 54–39 ✓
San Diego @ UNLV +3.3 127.0 62% 57–80 ✓
Missouri State @ Saint Mary's +4.6 127.5 66% 58–75 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Hawai'i -1.6 135.1 44% 68–54 ✓
Wagner @ Fairfield -0.7 135.9 47% 63–50 ✓
Liberty @ Stanford +1.6 131.8 56% 76–79 ✓
Fresno State @ Weber State -2.1 128.7 42% 69–43 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Wyoming +10.0 138.5 82% 69–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.