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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–18 on winners spread MAE 9.6 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Austin Peay @ Murray State +17.5 134.8 89% 56–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +10.3 132.0 85% 66–63 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +0.3 131.6 45% 65–57 ✗
Wichita State @ Cincinnati +2.4 134.9 59% 76–85 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -3.6 146.9 32% 71–65 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +1.0 146.5 54% 63–67 ✓
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic -1.3 130.0 34% 54–51 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -1.4 150.9 42% 81–63 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart -10.3 145.2 18% 76–67 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Mount St. Mary's +5.2 131.4 67% 64–55 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack +7.4 133.4 76% 44–64 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +10.3 148.6 86% 61–75 ✓
UIC @ Youngstown State +4.2 142.7 73% 79–88 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +12.0 129.3 81% 66–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +5.0 133.3 72% 63–79 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -0.1 136.7 47% 71–68 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +10.6 131.6 83% 73–70 ✗
Drexel @ William & Mary -9.1 142.9 18% 72–57 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -4.6 143.8 33% 71–62 ✓
James Madison @ Charleston +5.7 154.5 74% 71–63 ✗
Michigan @ Iowa +6.1 155.0 76% 84–79 ✗
Oregon State @ Arizona +26.9 157.7 91% 69–83 ✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +9.2 145.0 76% 63–60 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston +0.7 141.3 51% 71–75 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -1.8 142.2 46% 78–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont +25.7 139.7 91% 57–81 ✓
UTSA @ Southern Miss +1.9 141.8 54% 98–79 ✗
Rice @ UAB +13.6 154.9 88% 68–92 ✓
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky +7.3 148.0 81% 67–77 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls +7.6 150.7 79% 73–82 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington +8.8 138.8 82% 70–85 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State +4.5 135.2 72% 67–84 ✓
Denver @ Omaha -3.2 152.3 35% 69–72 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota -5.1 147.1 28% 80–65 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota +6.7 150.3 78% 60–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +13.1 161.0 87% 66–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +1.0 153.0 57% 59–77 ✓
VMI @ Samford +0.9 159.2 59% 99–100 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +3.8 155.7 67% 94–98 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +2.1 137.7 62% 65–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.6 156.1 63% 83–74 ✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word -0.2 148.1 46% 88–64 ✓
UCF @ Houston +13.7 136.2 87% 52–70 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico -4.6 153.1 31% 83–68 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State -1.8 139.8 42% 57–81 ✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State +11.9 143.8 86% 50–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State -6.9 148.2 24% 58–61 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -4.3 147.8 34% 76–82 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -0.8 147.2 44% 86–88 ✗
Longwood @ High Point -1.9 138.5 41% 78–71 ✓
Colorado @ California -0.0 134.5 46% 70–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +3.5 133.7 66% 64–69 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul +1.2 138.7 56% 71–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +6.5 129.5 73% 69–79 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego -2.2 139.5 42% 65–53 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge -5.2 145.8 28% 72–59 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +4.9 136.0 70% 67–58 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +4.2 144.2 68% 67–68 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +1.6 140.9 62% 60–92 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -4.9 153.0 30% 84–80 ✓
Washington State @ UCLA +8.5 138.1 85% 56–76 ✓
Utah @ Stanford +5.7 144.3 72% 60–56 ✗
Washington @ USC +11.2 143.6 86% 69–79 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -5.7 145.1 29% 90–60 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +7.6 142.6 74% 57–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.