And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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54–13 on winners spread MAE 8.3 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Villanova @ Pennsylvania -8.2 147.4 21% 71–56 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +8.2 131.9 83% 63–85 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vermont +5.2 125.4 71% 65–83 ✓
Lehigh @ Yale +12.0 141.6 82% 72–82 ✓
Princeton @ Hofstra +5.6 154.1 71% 77–81 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Morehead State +5.5 133.3 73% 51–59 ✓
UT Martin @ Middle Tennessee +15.2 140.1 87% 61–73 ✓
Stetson @ Florida Atlantic +3.5 139.0 72% 73–83 ✓
Bucknell @ Saint Francis +9.9 154.0 81% 67–93 ✓
Holy Cross @ Central Connecticut +5.7 139.5 74% 67–73 ✓
William & Mary @ Navy +22.4 130.0 90% 56–75 ✓
Norfolk State @ UNC Wilmington +1.5 136.5 51% 74–69 ✗
South Carolina @ Coastal Carolina -2.6 133.8 44% 56–80 ✗
Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) +4.8 145.2 60% 59–58 ✗
Richmond @ Wofford +6.4 152.0 77% 73–64 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +8.5 139.2 71% 57–73 ✓
Boston University @ George Washington -4.8 136.1 36% 56–54 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Maryland +7.9 134.6 78% 64–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Harvard +3.0 144.5 57% 64–57 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fordham +11.6 145.1 81% 46–68 ✓
Brown @ UMass Lowell +9.2 133.3 78% 73–63 ✗
Columbia @ UMBC +13.5 150.1 84% 60–98 ✓
Alabama State @ Dayton +8.3 145.5 76% 54–93 ✓
Binghamton @ Saint Joseph's +4.4 145.8 72% 57–79 ✓
Coppin State @ St. Bonaventure +11.7 136.0 84% 81–93 ✓
Mercer @ Kennesaw State +4.1 142.7 64% 73–71 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +5.0 142.7 71% 61–77 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -2.8 131.7 46% 54–52 ✓
Iona @ Marist -3.5 141.9 39% 78–71 ✓
Ball State @ Western Illinois +11.0 151.7 82% 80–93 ✓
Bowling Green @ Duquesne +4.8 150.4 67% 78–70 ✗
Marshall @ Akron +1.9 144.1 56% 86–88 ✓
Memphis @ Georgia -7.4 142.2 29% 79–82 ✗
Louisville @ Michigan State +11.2 132.0 81% 64–73 ✓
Nebraska @ NC State +7.5 150.8 77% 100–104 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Maryland -5.7 134.2 27% 62–58 ✓
Texas Southern @ Louisiana Tech +6.6 146.9 75% 60–87 ✓
Hartford @ Winthrop +10.4 155.9 76% 75–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ UAB +12.8 140.6 84% 56–70 ✓
Washington State @ Arizona State -5.5 149.8 36% 51–29 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Arkansas +26.0 150.0 91% 60–97 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma +3.5 131.4 69% 67–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Iowa State +25.6 142.8 91% 64–83 ✓
UCF @ Auburn +13.0 146.5 86% 68–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ South Alabama +14.0 136.9 85% 55–85 ✓
Wichita State @ Oklahoma State +9.9 136.7 77% 60–51 ✗
UNLV @ SMU +5.9 136.8 74% 64–83 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.8 153.6 59% 83–77 ✗
UAlbany @ Kansas State +14.2 133.0 87% 43–71 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +1.1 140.9 60% 69–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Illinois State -6.7 160.5 45% 74–79 ✗
Indiana State @ Loyola Chicago +16.7 147.4 89% 76–88 ✓
Ohio @ LSU +18.1 141.4 89% 51–66 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Northern Illinois +11.4 122.6 86% 45–55 ✓
Texas Tech @ Providence +1.5 144.5 63% 68–72 ✓
BYU @ Utah Valley +1.6 142.8 66% 65–72 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ North Alabama +17.3 140.3 91% 58–72 ✓
Little Rock @ Colorado State +19.3 152.2 89% 55–86 ✓
Pacific @ UC Davis +6.9 139.0 70% 57–63 ✓
Wisconsin @ Georgia Tech -1.1 135.0 45% 70–66 ✓
Michigan @ North Carolina +4.3 150.2 64% 51–72 ✓
Miami @ Penn State +11.6 139.7 80% 63–58 ✗
Colorado @ UCLA +12.2 153.0 83% 61–73 ✓
UC Riverside @ Oregon +4.3 133.4 73% 65–71 ✓
San Diego @ Fresno State +4.3 127.7 69% 43–63 ✓
McNeese @ Seattle U +15.1 142.4 89% 62–78 ✓
Utah @ USC +8.2 136.4 76% 73–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.