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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–19 on winners spread MAE 9.5 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Austin Peay @ Murray State +19.8 130.9 96% 56–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +11.4 125.7 85% 66–63 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida -0.2 127.1 49% 65–57 ✓
Wichita State @ Cincinnati +2.6 130.4 59% 76–85 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International -5.5 140.6 31% 71–65 ✓
Old Dominion @ Marshall +0.8 144.7 53% 63–67 ✓
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic -3.6 121.9 37% 54–51 ✓
Long Island University @ Saint Francis -2.4 151.1 41% 81–63 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart -12.0 145.6 14% 76–67 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Mount St. Mary's +6.4 127.5 72% 64–55 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Merrimack +7.9 128.8 76% 44–64 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Bryant +13.7 147.4 89% 61–75 ✓
UIC @ Youngstown State +6.3 145.8 72% 79–88 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Robert Morris +16.3 123.0 93% 66–56 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +5.4 131.6 69% 63–79 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -0.4 136.0 49% 71–68 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Chattanooga +11.0 123.4 84% 73–70 ✗
Drexel @ William & Mary -10.6 142.3 17% 72–57 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -5.2 135.7 32% 71–62 ✓
James Madison @ Charleston +6.8 160.0 73% 71–63 ✗
Michigan @ Iowa +6.0 153.5 71% 84–79 ✗
Oregon State @ Arizona +29.8 153.1 100% 69–83 ✓
UTEP @ Louisiana Tech +8.6 140.2 78% 63–60 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Sam Houston +2.0 137.1 57% 71–75 ✓
Louisiana @ UL Monroe -2.8 144.2 40% 78–77 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Belmont +30.0 133.0 100% 57–81 ✓
UTSA @ Southern Miss +1.8 135.8 57% 98–79 ✗
Rice @ UAB +15.9 154.3 93% 68–92 ✓
Charlotte @ Western Kentucky +7.9 147.7 76% 67–77 ✓
McNeese @ Nicholls +9.4 150.8 80% 73–82 ✓
Little Rock @ UT Arlington +10.7 140.7 83% 70–85 ✓
Arkansas State @ Texas State +4.2 134.0 65% 67–84 ✓
Denver @ Omaha -4.1 150.6 35% 69–72 ✗
Kansas City @ North Dakota -6.2 142.0 29% 80–65 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota +7.0 148.6 74% 60–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ South Dakota State +13.7 166.9 89% 66–91 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State -0.8 151.9 47% 59–77 ✗
VMI @ Samford +0.4 159.1 51% 99–100 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +5.9 159.0 70% 94–98 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee State +1.9 139.0 57% 65–81 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +5.5 153.6 69% 83–74 ✗
Northwestern State @ Incarnate Word +0.1 148.9 50% 88–64 ✗
UCF @ Houston +16.7 136.5 94% 52–70 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico -6.5 160.9 28% 83–68 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State -3.9 137.3 36% 57–81 ✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State +15.1 140.4 91% 50–65 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State -9.5 145.2 19% 58–61 ✗
Montana @ Idaho -4.2 146.8 35% 76–82 ✗
Montana State @ Eastern Washington -1.3 146.2 45% 86–88 ✗
Longwood @ High Point -3.5 138.8 37% 78–71 ✓
Colorado @ California -0.6 129.3 48% 70–62 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +4.1 129.0 64% 64–69 ✓
Creighton @ DePaul +0.8 138.4 53% 71–59 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Riverside +7.5 120.2 75% 69–79 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego -3.3 139.1 38% 65–53 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Northridge -7.1 142.6 26% 72–59 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +5.0 136.3 67% 67–58 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Portland State +6.3 141.8 72% 67–68 ✓
San Diego @ Portland +2.1 135.0 58% 60–92 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -7.0 152.9 26% 84–80 ✓
Washington State @ UCLA +7.9 134.8 76% 56–76 ✓
Utah @ Stanford +3.9 140.2 64% 60–56 ✗
Washington @ USC +12.8 140.6 88% 69–79 ✓
Nevada @ San José State -6.4 145.1 28% 90–60 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +9.3 141.7 80% 57–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.