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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–12 on winners spread MAE 8.2 50 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Illinois @ Rutgers	-6.8	134.7	27%	59–70	✗
Mississippi State @ Alabama	+6.0	152.9	71%	75–80	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette	-1.4	131.2	45%	68–77	✗
Boston University @ Holy Cross	-9.3	136.9	20%	78–65	✓
Navy @ American University	-10.9	123.2	16%	55–46	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Hampton	-3.3	130.4	38%	82–93	✗
Winthrop @ Gardner-Webb	+5.6	137.9	70%	81–70	✗
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern	-9.4	140.2	20%	85–66	✓
Miami @ Louisville	-1.9	144.8	43%	70–63	✓
Boston College @ Notre Dame	+9.9	129.2	82%	95–99	✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire	-8.1	133.6	23%	71–50	✓
Stony Brook @ UMBC	+3.9	150.9	64%	84–95	✓
UMass Lowell @ NJIT	-3.2	131.2	38%	55–59	✗
Maine @ Hartford	+11.8	138.7	86%	65–75	✓
UAlbany @ Binghamton	+1.2	125.9	54%	68–67	✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson	-3.1	121.9	39%	67–45	✓
Kennesaw State @ Florida Gulf Coast	+3.8	152.8	64%	76–82	✓
Massachusetts @ St. Bonaventure	+10.0	154.1	82%	71–83	✓
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's	-0.8	141.9	47%	75–70	✓
Furman @ Western Carolina	-12.7	148.1	12%	103–85	✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer	+1.8	143.1	57%	56–65	✓
Wofford @ The Citadel	-5.3	151.4	31%	65–58	✓
Georgia @ LSU	+20.9	141.0	97%	65–84	✓
George Washington @ Duquesne	+2.6	136.6	59%	73–52	✗
Chicago State @ Stephen F. Austin	+19.3	136.6	96%	71–88	✓
North Alabama @ Eastern Kentucky	+6.9	144.0	73%	76–80	✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis	+17.4	145.6	94%	64–90	✓
Georgetown @ Marquette	+16.6	156.1	93%	66–77	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-1.8	128.2	44%	69–56	✓
Seattle U @ UT Rio Grande Valley	-6.3	153.9	28%	102–62	✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina	+14.4	141.1	90%	76–67	✗
Jacksonville State @ Lipscomb	-4.3	148.8	35%	78–67	✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas	-6.7	151.0	27%	79–69	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Valparaiso	-11.5	136.8	15%	71–69	✓
Evansville @ Drake	+17.7	130.5	95%	51–73	✓
Seton Hall @ UConn	+5.9	143.3	71%	65–70	✓
Vanderbilt @ Auburn	+13.7	139.7	89%	80–94	✓
Purdue @ Northwestern	-6.0	153.2	29%	70–64	✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech	-0.1	136.5	50%	73–83	✗
SMU @ Temple	-3.6	139.1	37%	57–64	✗
Morehead State @ UT Martin	-8.9	135.1	21%	68–60	✓
Utah Tech @ New Mexico State	+15.7	144.1	92%	64–75	✓
Grand Canyon @ California Baptist	-4.8	133.4	33%	65–60	✓
Boise State @ Air Force	-11.2	115.8	15%	85–59	✓
UNLV @ Fresno State	+6.6	123.9	72%	60–57	✗
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine	-31.5	161.3	0%	86–66	✓
Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan	-9.8	155.8	19%	83–69	✓
Minnesota @ Penn State	+4.2	125.2	65%	46–67	✓
Towson @ UNC Wilmington	-4.9	130.6	33%	79–55	✓
Troy @ App State	+3.3	128.1	62%	67–61	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.