Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -1100 PITT +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +9 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -13.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -12.1 (-21.1) | 141.0 (+2.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.4 (-21.4) | 145.7 (-2.7) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.9 (-21.9) | 145.8 (-2.8) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -12.6 (-21.6) | 141.5 (+1.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | UNC 79 – 65 PITT |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNC 67 – 66 PITT |
| Jan 29, 2025 | PITT 73 – 65 UNC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UNC 72 – 65 PITT |
| Jan 3, 2024 | UNC 70 – 57 PITT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-11 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#42) | -0.5 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#39) | 0.04 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#40) | 0.00 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#26) | 0.482 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PITT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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