Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -1.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -0.4 (+9.4) | 131.3 (+13.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -0.5 (+9.5) | 133.6 (+11.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -0.5 (+9.5) | 134.2 (+10.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -0.0 (+9.0) | 133.6 (+11.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#319) | -5.7 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#308) | -1.10 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#315) | -1.36 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#297) | 0.452 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | L-MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.4% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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