Betting Lines
| Spread | NCAT -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +11 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | NCAT -3.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.2 (+44.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCAT -3.0 (+14.0) | 134.4 (+40.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCAT -2.1 (+13.1) | 133.1 (+41.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCAT -1.8 (+12.8) | 133.3 (+41.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCAT -1.3 (+12.3) | 134.0 (+41.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | NCAT 71 – 70 HAMP |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HAMP 82 – 61 NCAT |
| Jan 21, 2025 | HAMP 74 – 73 NCAT |
| Dec 4, 2024 | HAMP 82 – 71 NCAT |
| Feb 2, 2024 | NCAT 59 – 58 HAMP |
Game Analysis
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