Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -0.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -1.7 (+8.3) | 135.0 (+21.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -1.8 (+8.2) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -2.1 (+7.9) | 140.2 (+15.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -2.2 (+7.8) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | TTU 92 – 73 BAY |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TTU 76 – 74 BAY |
| Feb 5, 2025 | TTU 73 – 59 BAY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TTU 78 – 68 BAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BAY 79 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 18-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#13) | 19.9 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#11) | 3.47 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#12) | 4.31 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#35) | 0.627 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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