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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–13 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wake Forest
@
Duke
|
+10.6 | 149.7 | 83% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Oklahoma
|
-1.7 | 120.6 | 44% | 80–78 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Sacred Heart
|
+1.4 | 130.9 | 55% | 70–63 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Cincinnati
|
-1.0 | 140.4 | 46% | 81–74 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Saint Peter's
|
-3.8 | 136.0 | 37% | 70–61 | ✓ |
Hofstra
@
Elon
|
-6.9 | 146.3 | 27% | 97–64 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
South Florida
|
-5.4 | 128.0 | 31% | 76–57 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Florida State
|
+1.4 | 140.2 | 55% | 80–81 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
North Florida
|
-7.9 | 136.7 | 24% | 69–72 | ✗ |
VCU
@
Fordham
|
-5.2 | 122.1 | 32% | 66–61 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ball State
|
+7.8 | 144.4 | 76% | 64–58 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Central Michigan
|
-1.8 | 149.5 | 44% | 75–70 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ohio
|
+12.6 | 143.0 | 87% | 78–91 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Bowling Green
|
-5.6 | 166.9 | 30% | 112–85 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+2.7 | 132.8 | 60% | 77–74 | ✗ |
Florida
@
Texas A&M
|
+0.5 | 135.1 | 52% | 55–56 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Providence
|
-5.6 | 128.0 | 31% | 89–84 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Georgia Tech
|
+1.0 | 146.3 | 54% | 76–61 | ✗ |
Northern Iowa
@
Illinois State
|
-2.4 | 156.4 | 41% | 72–70 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
Southern Illinois
|
-1.7 | 120.8 | 44% | 57–65 | ✗ |
Indiana State
@
Missouri State
|
+14.9 | 145.6 | 91% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Ohio State
|
+10.3 | 141.8 | 83% | 45–70 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Tennessee
|
+0.6 | 144.3 | 52% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Indiana
|
+2.7 | 130.9 | 60% | 74–69 | ✗ |
Wyoming
@
New Mexico
|
-7.4 | 157.9 | 25% | 66–75 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
Missouri
|
-8.6 | 142.3 | 22% | 76–57 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Oregon State
|
-5.5 | 139.0 | 31% | 90–64 | ✓ |
Butler
@
DePaul
|
+6.8 | 131.3 | 73% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Iowa State
@
TCU
|
+2.1 | 125.5 | 57% | 54–51 | ✗ |
UC Irvine
@
UC San Diego
|
-5.6 | 130.6 | 30% | 56–50 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
San Diego State
|
+2.5 | 127.0 | 59% | 56–75 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Nevada
|
+12.5 | 144.3 | 87% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Fairfield
|
+7.4 | 140.5 | 75% | 74–67 | ✗ |
Colgate
@
Army
|
-5.6 | 143.0 | 31% | 100–90 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+2.9 | 139.8 | 60% | 55–60 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+9.4 | 153.8 | 80% | 86–73 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Radford
|
-3.6 | 120.8 | 37% | 67–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.