Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -2.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -3.9 (+15.1) | 128.9 (+2.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -3.9 (+15.1) | 130.4 (+0.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.3 (+14.7) | 131.3 (-0.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.0 (+15.0) | 132.0 (-1.0) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | USU 73 – 62 SDSU |
| Feb 26, 2026 | SDSU 89 – 72 USU |
| Jan 31, 2026 | USU 71 – 66 SDSU |
| Feb 23, 2025 | USU 79 – 71 SDSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | USU 67 – 66 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#52) | 9.9 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#41) | 1.26 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#40) | 1.89 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#45) | 0.563 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 77.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.