Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -7.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -6.4 (-12.4) | 146.3 (-24.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -5.4 (-11.4) | 147.0 (-25.0) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -5.4 (-11.4) | 148.6 (-26.6) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -5.2 (-11.2) | 146.8 (-24.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-5 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#262) | -9.8 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#234) | -1.45 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#240) | -1.79 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#264) | 0.434 (#294) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.