Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -8.4 (-21.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -7.6 (-20.6) | 155.9 (+3.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -8.5 (-21.5) | 151.8 (+7.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -7.5 (-20.5) | 152.3 (+6.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -7.0 (-20.0) | 155.4 (+3.6) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2026 | SJU 87 – 82 XAV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | SJU 88 – 83 XAV |
| Jan 23, 2025 | SJU 79 – 71 XAV |
| Jan 7, 2025 | SJU 82 – 72 XAV |
| Jan 31, 2024 | XAV 88 – 77 SJU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 8-11 |
| Home | 16-5 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.3 (#20) | 7.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#26) | 1.29 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#24) | 1.90 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#25) | 0.517 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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