Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +5 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -5.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+44.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.6 (-2.4) | 133.7 (+39.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.0 (-5.0) | 134.8 (+38.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -1.0 (-4.0) | 135.9 (+37.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.3 (-3.7) | 135.1 (+37.9) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | VILL 87 – 73 PROV |
| Jan 13, 2026 | VILL 88 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | PROV 75 – 62 VILL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | VILL 75 – 73 PROV |
| Mar 2, 2024 | VILL 71 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-2 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#49) | 18.1 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#2) | 3.05 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#8) | 3.72 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#3) | 0.633 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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