Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UNI -2.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -3.0 (+1.0) | 147.6 (-5.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.1 (+0.1) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.0 (-0.0) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.3 (+0.3) | 150.2 (-8.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNI 74 – 52 ILST |
| Feb 26, 2026 | ILST 71 – 69 UNI |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ILST 59 – 54 UNI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNI 68 – 65 ILST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UNI 85 – 84 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#171) | 4.8 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#251) | 0.44 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#239) | 0.59 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#261) | 0.548 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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