Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -7.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -4.7 (-11.7) | 139.0 (+2.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.9 (-11.9) | 140.7 (+0.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.8 (-11.8) | 141.5 (-0.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -5.1 (-12.1) | 140.3 (+0.7) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#190) | -5.6 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#231) | -0.39 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#236) | -0.73 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#217) | 0.470 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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