Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +8 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -1.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.1 (+10.1) | 124.4 (-2.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.0 (+10.0) | 128.8 (-6.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -1.4 (+9.4) | 129.4 (-7.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -1.0 (+9.0) | 125.3 (-3.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#135) | 6.5 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#207) | 0.21 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#194) | 0.40 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#233) | 0.515 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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