Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +19 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -9.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -6.8 (-12.2) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.9 (-12.1) | 142.8 (-9.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.7 (-12.3) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.8 (-11.2) | 145.1 (-12.1) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#147) | 13.0 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#121) | 2.21 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#115) | 2.77 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#137) | 0.592 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.