Betting Lines
| Spread | UPST -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UPST -120 PRES +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | UPST -2.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UPST -2.3 (+2.7) | 137.9 (-22.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UPST -2.2 (+2.8) | 142.2 (-27.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UPST -2.7 (+2.3) | 143.6 (-28.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UPST -1.9 (+3.1) | 139.8 (-24.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UPST 76 – 74 PRES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PRES 86 – 77 UPST |
| Feb 6, 2025 | PRES 75 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UPST 77 – 67 PRES |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UPST 74 – 72 PRES |
Game Analysis
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