Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -5.4 (+0.4) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -4.7 (-0.3) | 129.8 (-2.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -4.3 (-0.7) | 130.4 (-3.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -3.7 (-1.3) | 131.2 (-4.2) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | VCU 82 – 63 FOR |
| Feb 4, 2026 | VCU 63 – 59 FOR |
| Jan 9, 2025 | VCU 73 – 61 FOR |
| Mar 13, 2024 | VCU 69 – 62 FOR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | VCU 75 – 60 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#176) | 7.6 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#197) | 1.79 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#184) | 1.79 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#195) | 0.590 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 43.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 25.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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