Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -11.8 (-2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -13.2 (-4.2) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -9.9 (-0.9) | 141.8 (+11.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -9.7 (-0.7) | 141.7 (+11.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -9.4 (-0.4) | 142.5 (+10.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SJSU 87 – 71 NEV |
| Jan 21, 2026 | NEV 87 – 54 SJSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NEV 73 – 58 SJSU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NEV 75 – 64 SJSU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NEV 84 – 63 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#139) | -7.2 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#114) | -0.70 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#111) | -0.97 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.457 (#250) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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