Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +9 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -14.4 (-5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -12.0 (-3.0) | 141.3 (+7.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -12.5 (-3.5) | 143.3 (+5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -12.7 (-3.7) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -13.7 (-4.7) | 143.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#57) | -2.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#102) | -0.82 (#245) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#82) | -0.95 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#91) | 0.464 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 5.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 17.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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