Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 194 | Won |
| Massey | ND -10.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+65.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -10.2 (-6.2) | 130.7 (+63.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -10.4 (-6.4) | 130.5 (+63.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -10.3 (-6.3) | 132.2 (+61.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -9.9 (-5.9) | 132.3 (+61.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BC 77 – 69 ND |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ND 68 – 64 BC |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ND 97 – 94 BC |
| Jan 14, 2025 | ND 78 – 60 BC |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BC 61 – 58 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#65) | 0.8 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#45) | -0.34 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#51) | -0.15 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#43) | 0.450 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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