Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -6.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -6.6 (-1.6) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -6.7 (-1.7) | 153.4 (+1.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -6.6 (-1.6) | 153.5 (+1.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -6.0 (-1.0) | 151.2 (+3.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ALA 100 – 75 MSST |
| Jan 14, 2026 | ALA 97 – 82 MSST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ALA 111 – 73 MSST |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ALA 88 – 84 MSST |
| Feb 4, 2024 | ALA 99 – 67 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#19) | 10.4 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#29) | 1.42 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#25) | 1.76 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#5) | 0.552 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 35.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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