Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +21 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -4.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -5.5 (+15.5) | 126.4 (-13.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -5.0 (+16.0) | 129.5 (-16.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -5.5 (+15.5) | 131.0 (-18.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -5.2 (+15.8) | 131.5 (-18.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PSU 77 – 75 MINN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PSU 69 – 60 MINN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | MINN 69 – 61 PSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MINN 75 – 70 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MINN 83 – 74 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 13-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.6 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#84) | 5.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#85) | 1.36 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#83) | 1.58 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#104) | 0.552 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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