Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +13 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -9.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -8.0 (-5.0) | 136.0 (+7.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -7.4 (-5.6) | 140.9 (+2.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -6.9 (-6.1) | 142.2 (+0.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -8.1 (-4.9) | 140.4 (+2.6) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#348) | -1.6 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#330) | -0.31 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.82 (#338) | -0.45 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#336) | 0.484 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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