Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Under |
| Money | AMER +360 NAVY -475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +9 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -11.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -10.9 (+1.9) | 124.7 (-23.7) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -9.8 (+0.8) | 128.9 (-27.9) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -9.7 (+0.7) | 129.6 (-28.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.4 (+1.4) | 127.2 (-26.2) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 4-16 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#344) | 1.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#323) | 0.15 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#322) | 0.31 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#334) | 0.513 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMER | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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