Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -6.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -4.7 (-7.7) | 126.1 (-9.1) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -4.8 (-7.8) | 130.3 (-13.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -5.6 (-8.6) | 131.0 (-14.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -5.2 (-8.2) | 127.6 (-10.6) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | FRES 98 – 96 UNLV |
| Dec 21, 2025 | UNLV 84 – 72 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNLV 52 – 51 FRES |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNLV 87 – 77 FRES |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UNLV 67 – 65 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#62) | 5.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#79) | 0.90 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#71) | 1.31 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#83) | 0.539 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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