Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MER -1.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -1.1 (+7.9) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.0 (+7.0) | 144.9 (-23.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -1.3 (+7.7) | 144.7 (-23.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -1.2 (+7.8) | 144.6 (-23.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#208) | -0.9 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#150) | 0.10 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#160) | 0.08 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#142) | 0.515 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 14.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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