Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | MIA -1.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -0.4 (-6.6) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -2.1 (-4.9) | 144.6 (-11.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.5 (-5.5) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -1.7 (-5.3) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | MIA 78 – 73 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | LOU 92 – 89 MIA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LOU 88 – 78 MIA |
| Jan 11, 2024 | LOU 80 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 12, 2023 | MIA 93 – 85 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#122) | 7.7 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | 1.96 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#131) | 2.36 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#143) | 0.588 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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