Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.0 Push |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | NU +220 PUR -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -5.7 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.2 (-1.8) | 147.6 (-13.6) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -3.1 (-2.9) | 150.6 (-16.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -3.1 (-2.9) | 152.6 (-18.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.0 (-3.0) | 151.6 (-17.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | PUR 81 – 68 NU |
| Mar 5, 2026 | PUR 70 – 66 NU |
| Jan 5, 2025 | PUR 79 – 61 NU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | PUR 105 – 96 NU |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NU 92 – 88 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#52) | 18.2 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#88) | 3.25 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#86) | 3.96 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#135) | 0.624 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 40.5% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 15.3% |
Game Analysis
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