Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +5 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | GMU -0.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.3 (-3.7) | 141.8 (+3.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -0.7 (-5.7) | 144.1 (+0.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -0.4 (-5.4) | 144.5 (+0.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.1 (-4.9) | 145.1 (-0.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | JOES 81 – 63 GMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | GMU 60 – 52 JOES |
| Mar 15, 2025 | GMU 74 – 64 JOES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GMU 58 – 57 JOES |
| Mar 13, 2024 | JOES 64 – 57 GMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-10 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#145) | 4.4 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.11 (#188) | 0.42 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#169) | 0.56 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#192) | 0.517 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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