Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +24 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -4.9 (-19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -3.0 (-21.0) | 135.2 (-1.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.8 (-21.2) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -2.8 (-21.2) | 140.3 (-6.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.6 (-20.4) | 137.1 (-3.1) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | UNCW 82 – 73 TOW |
| Jan 3, 2025 | TOW 65 – 61 UNCW |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TOW 66 – 56 UNCW |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 64 TOW |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOW 67 – 64 UNCW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-5 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 62.4 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#201) | 6.2 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#122) | 1.15 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#153) | 1.50 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#122) | 0.552 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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