Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -12.0 Push |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -10.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -10.1 (+1.9) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -10.1 (+1.9) | 152.3 (+1.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -10.3 (+1.7) | 152.7 (+1.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -9.8 (+2.2) | 151.2 (+2.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | SBU 73 – 72 MASS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SBU 73 – 59 MASS |
| Feb 24, 2024 | SBU 75 – 67 MASS |
| Feb 8, 2024 | SBU 79 – 73 MASS |
| Mar 4, 2023 | MASS 71 – 60 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#89) | -0.9 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#63) | -0.06 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#75) | -0.10 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#55) | 0.492 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | MASS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 38.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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