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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
49–17 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
66 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+20.8 | 158.3 | 90% | 66–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 129.1 | 37% | 69–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.9 | 65% | 70–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 159.1 | 82% | 77–98 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 151.2 | 88% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.8 | 133.4 | 88% | 53–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 145.7 | 70% | 62–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 136.3 | 63% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.7 | 140.6 | 45% | 68–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.6 | 145.6 | 78% | 99–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 142.4 | 79% | 57–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.6 | 135.0 | 81% | 62–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.3 | 137.0 | 90% | 68–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 140.7 | 73% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 147.1 | 89% | 74–103 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 144.9 | 88% | 71–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.7 | 141.6 | 22% | 65–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 144.2 | 88% | 71–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.0 | 136.2 | 14% | 85–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.6 | 153.9 | 88% | 87–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.2 | 69% | 80–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 141.7 | 75% | 72–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 136.8 | 58% | 68–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 147.9 | 86% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+23.5 | 139.0 | 91% | 61–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 132.1 | 22% | 72–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 132.5 | 69% | 47–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 149.2 | 71% | 92–100 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 122.1 | 51% | 47–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 157.4 | 36% | 71–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.2 | 145.5 | 75% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 136.5 | 58% | 68–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-13.4 | 147.8 | 13% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 148.0 | 71% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 138.6 | 18% | 83–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 154.4 | 67% | 90–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.3 | 148.5 | 31% | 72–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.2 | 142.5 | 67% | 68–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 131.2 | 45% | 61–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 130.6 | 66% | 85–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.6 | 143.0 | 38% | 83–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 135.6 | 50% | 65–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 144.6 | 63% | 71–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 131.0 | 61% | 72–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 142.9 | 74% | 67–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 132.4 | 70% | 49–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 137.5 | 70% | 91–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 151.7 | 83% | 83–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 137.0 | 75% | 67–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 143.1 | 69% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 142.2 | 72% | 61–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.6 | 159.7 | 89% | 78–103 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 148.1 | 31% | 67–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 151.3 | 46% | 75–80 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 143.9 | 35% | 80–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 147.8 | 79% | 68–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 144.5 | 76% | 57–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.6 | 130.3 | 24% | 77–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.6 | 142.5 | 80% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 145.8 | 90% | 66–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 144.5 | 75% | 59–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 142.4 | 46% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.3 | 142.2 | 89% | 63–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 149.1 | 87% | 78–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 143.8 | 78% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 139.6 | 79% | 95–103 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.