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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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57–13 on winners spread MAE 8.5 70 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Temple @ Houston	+18.4	135.0	89%	46–84	✓
Penn State @ Illinois	+11.9	137.7	88%	55–60	✓
Michigan State @ Ohio State	+4.3	143.0	76%	69–80	✓
UIC @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+5.1	151.2	76%	72–78	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky	+3.7	137.5	69%	59–77	✓
Oakland @ Wright State	+3.0	149.0	65%	63–75	✓
Bucknell @ Colgate	+18.4	152.3	90%	68–96	✓
American University @ Navy	+12.3	122.3	86%	64–71	✓
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University	+4.5	134.0	70%	64–76	✓
Army @ Lehigh	-1.3	142.6	48%	77–91	✗
Indiana State @ Illinois State	+0.9	148.5	51%	53–58	✓
Central Arkansas @ Jacksonville	+12.0	137.9	87%	69–79	✓
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State	+8.6	140.9	80%	67–78	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine	+2.0	148.1	57%	68–81	✓
Lipscomb @ Liberty	+13.1	147.4	87%	47–52	✓
Cincinnati @ SMU	+6.5	142.3	77%	71–76	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Florida International	-4.5	138.0	33%	71–51	✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth	+8.0	141.7	79%	72–75	✓
Iona @ Manhattan	-8.3	144.9	23%	72–74	✗
Siena @ Niagara	+1.6	131.1	59%	52–74	✓
Marist @ Canisius	-1.8	139.5	43%	67–78	✗
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+0.0	149.2	54%	55–79	✓
South Carolina State @ North Carolina Central	+4.2	142.4	72%	62–67	✓
Howard @ Norfolk State	+7.7	143.9	80%	61–83	✓
Morgan State @ Coppin State	-0.2	148.3	44%	63–59	✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+12.0	134.8	88%	59–63	✓
Tarleton State @ Sam Houston	+5.2	130.6	65%	50–69	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	+3.1	135.3	63%	59–65	✓
TCU @ Kansas	+10.3	144.3	84%	68–72	✓
Robert Morris @ Cleveland State	+11.6	146.6	86%	67–83	✓
UCF @ Tulane	-0.1	143.4	54%	67–82	✗
California @ Arizona State	+5.2	132.6	75%	44–71	✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M	+0.0	134.7	51%	63–71	✓
North Texas @ UTSA	-12.5	128.9	14%	59–48	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+14.5	146.5	88%	64–80	✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	+5.7	131.9	71%	70–64	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State	+9.9	134.4	84%	79–87	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State	+13.1	148.5	88%	69–72	✓
Stanford @ Arizona	+14.8	146.8	89%	69–81	✓
Iowa @ Michigan	+0.5	153.3	44%	82–71	✗
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount	+4.1	138.4	63%	66–86	✓
Southern @ Alabama State	-3.8	146.0	41%	67–77	✗
Memphis @ South Florida	-11.8	130.2	16%	73–64	✓
Rice @ UTEP	+5.1	145.1	73%	67–70	✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State	+10.7	138.8	86%	69–75	✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana	+1.5	149.3	53%	75–66	✗
Southern Utah @ Idaho State	-8.7	142.0	20%	79–71	✓
Portland State @ Idaho	-0.5	154.5	36%	79–68	✓
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington	+12.1	142.4	87%	62–69	✓
Utah Valley @ Grand Canyon	+6.0	133.3	74%	57–68	✓
Evansville @ Valparaiso	+5.8	132.6	74%	59–81	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State	+8.2	140.5	75%	56–73	✓
Oregon @ Washington	-2.8	145.2	43%	67–78	✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	+4.3	144.9	68%	65–68	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Santa Barbara	+5.4	134.2	72%	60–67	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Bakersfield	+1.8	134.4	61%	72–70	✗
UC Irvine @ Cal Poly	-9.9	125.5	16%	54–65	✗
Fresno State @ San Diego State	+7.8	121.3	80%	64–65	✓
Oregon State @ Washington State	+13.1	146.5	89%	67–71	✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton	+1.5	134.2	56%	75–72	✗
Pepperdine @ San Diego	+2.0	138.8	57%	67–74	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Longwood	+7.1	135.7	78%	65–79	✓
Illinois State @ Northern Iowa	+6.1	150.7	75%	65–78	✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate	+5.2	143.5	70%	62–72	✓
Bradley @ Loyola Chicago	+6.3	132.7	71%	50–66	✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State	+4.1	148.7	66%	84–76	✗
High Point @ Winthrop	+5.9	144.0	74%	51–68	✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan	-3.6	146.2	32%	64–63	✓
Buffalo @ Kent State	+0.4	143.3	61%	65–70	✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo	+17.0	160.8	88%	56–96	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.