I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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50–16 on winners spread MAE 9.3 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Buffalo @ James Madison +31.4 160.6 91% 66–81 ✓
Drexel @ Lafayette -0.5 124.7 42% 69–48 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Coastal Carolina +1.9 142.4 66% 70–72 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Tulane +6.0 149.1 75% 77–98 ✓
Morgan State @ High Point +16.0 157.9 88% 59–77 ✓
Dartmouth @ Vermont +16.3 133.2 87% 53–64 ✓
UC Irvine @ Duquesne +4.3 147.5 65% 62–66 ✓
Marist @ Iona +0.9 139.2 54% 68–64 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Florida International +5.9 145.4 61% 68–65 ✗
La Salle @ Temple +5.6 150.2 71% 99–106 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Columbia +9.5 141.5 80% 57–69 ✓
Saint Francis @ Lehigh +13.2 138.8 81% 62–61 ✗
NJIT @ George Mason +22.3 136.1 91% 68–86 ✓
Robert Morris @ Northern Kentucky +3.7 143.9 66% 59–77 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Wright State +14.4 149.1 87% 74–103 ✓
Green Bay @ Purdue Fort Wayne +11.4 140.8 84% 71–75 ✓
Oakland @ Detroit Mercy -11.6 145.0 21% 65–50 ✓
Stony Brook @ Yale +11.5 142.6 85% 71–79 ✓
Princeton @ Bucknell -13.7 132.0 16% 85–71 ✓
Monmouth @ Cornell +11.9 153.5 84% 87–91 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Queens University +2.2 138.0 61% 80–83 ✓
Boston University @ UAlbany +8.3 140.5 82% 72–86 ✓
Radford @ Old Dominion +2.1 139.9 59% 68–69 ✓
American University @ Harvard +16.9 148.0 86% 75–80 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio State +23.4 141.6 90% 61–88 ✓
Maine @ Holy Cross -5.1 138.3 25% 72–57 ✓
VMI @ Navy +1.2 133.0 50% 47–67 ✓
Tennessee @ North Carolina +4.9 141.1 74% 92–100 ✓
Texas A&M @ Virginia +0.1 129.0 53% 47–59 ✓
Florida @ Wake Forest -1.9 155.7 46% 71–82 ✗
Richmond @ Wichita State +4.5 141.4 67% 68–80 ✓
Tarleton State @ Stephen F. Austin +7.6 141.6 74% 68–66 ✗
Grand Canyon @ UT Rio Grande Valley -12.6 148.8 15% 79–69 ✓
Evansville @ Missouri State +2.5 141.2 61% 78–90 ✓
Drake @ Valparaiso -4.8 142.8 33% 83–65 ✓
Belmont @ Northern Iowa +4.4 154.1 69% 90–70 ✗
Bradley @ Murray State -6.8 146.8 31% 72–79 ✗
Bellarmine @ Louisville +2.3 141.9 60% 68–73 ✓
Morehead State @ Austin Peay +3.0 133.4 59% 61–50 ✗
Davidson @ Charlotte +9.5 127.0 73% 85–81 ✗
Tennessee State @ Alabama A&M -6.8 148.4 30% 83–85 ✗
Dayton @ SMU +3.6 137.7 63% 65–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington +1.0 145.5 56% 71–86 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Valley +0.7 132.0 48% 72–78 ✓
Merrimack @ Georgetown +3.1 144.8 66% 67–69 ✓
Binghamton @ Colgate +3.4 135.7 61% 49–84 ✓
California Baptist @ Southern Utah +5.8 139.5 67% 91–66 ✗
Colorado @ Colorado State +14.3 151.0 87% 83–88 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UTEP +9.5 138.3 73% 67–63 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico +4.1 144.4 72% 65–74 ✓
Sam Houston @ Arizona State +6.5 141.8 72% 61–78 ✓
North Florida @ Iowa +20.6 153.0 89% 78–103 ✓
Denver @ Idaho -4.4 153.2 35% 67–65 ✓
Duke @ Arkansas -3.4 152.7 35% 75–80 ✗
Boston College @ Vanderbilt -3.9 145.6 36% 80–62 ✓
Georgia @ Florida State +13.7 145.1 86% 68–66 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Auburn +7.9 146.3 78% 57–74 ✓
San José State @ Cal Poly -6.1 132.9 32% 77–81 ✗
Northern Colorado @ San Diego +10.2 141.7 81% 72–74 ✓
Montana @ Nevada +21.6 144.5 91% 66–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ UC Santa Barbara +6.1 146.0 72% 59–70 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Pacific -0.4 141.6 45% 80–69 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Loyola Marymount +17.7 141.5 88% 63–90 ✓
Eastern Washington @ USC +16.8 147.8 87% 78–106 ✓
Liberty @ Florida Atlantic +6.6 149.3 75% 58–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Butler +11.0 138.5 81% 95–103 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.